Reliance Power will go a long way, says experts

Thursday, January 17, 2008

Reliance Power will go a long way, says experts

Keynote Capitals has come out with research report on Reliance Power IPO. The firm has recommended subscribing to the issue with a long term view.

The initial public offer of Reliance Power, ADAG group company, has opened for subscription today. The company is offering 22.8 crore equity shares through this issue in the price band of Rs 405-450 per share and raising nearly Rs 10530-11700 crore (USD 2.67- 2.97 billion).

The issue will close for subscription on January 18, 2008. Net issue would constitute 10.1% of post issue paid up capital of the company.

Keynote Capitals report on Reliance Power IPO

Recommendation - Subscribe with a long term view

* Reliance Power, part of RADAG has been set up to develop, construct and operate power projects domestically and internationally. It aims to develop 13 power projects with an aggregated generation capacity of 28,200 MW.
* Reliance Power will have a diversified project portfolio in terms of geography, fuel mix and technology.
* Nine of the proposed thirteen projects are coal-fired or gas-based and two of those have fuel security; the rest are yet to be finalised. In our view, for such huge capacity, fuel linkage is of paramount importance
* Long term PPAs for 8,560MW have been signed, constituting just 32% of the aggregated generating capacity. Of these, Sasan project (based on domestically procured coal) and Krishnapatnam project (based on imported coal) have been signed at a tariff of Rs1.19kw/h and 2.33kw/h per unit respectively, the differential attributable to the high cost of imported coal. A large number of PPAs are yet to be signed, reflecting some ambiguity on profitability.
* We believe equipment sourcing will be critical for Reliance Power being able to commission projects on schedule. Other key factors, apart from capital costs, are timely deliveries of equipment and maintenance costs.
* We believe the Group can draw synergies from the expertise of Reliance Energy in EPC in executing projects of Reliance Power.
* Our concerns include lack of fuel linkages except for 2 projects, coal prices and gas and equipment availability. Also in view of the gap between the aggregate project outlay of Rs 1,12,129 crore and post-IPO net worth of Rs 13,707 crore, we believe Reliance Power may have to opt for further equity dilution going forward, in order to maintain a manageable debt-equity ratio going forward.
* While the high promoter holding of around 90% post-listing is a positive, it may be viewed negatively from the point of view of minority shareholders, since the latter will enter the company @ Rs450 per share vis-à-vis promoters’ average cost of Rs 16.92 per share.
* Given the long gestation period of projects, which are likely to get commissioned from FY10 onwards, we have considered non-earnings related valuation parameters. The valuation of the IPO in terms of price/book (7.4x FY08E) appears expensive vis-à-vis NTPC (2.8x) and Tata Power (4.5x).
* The issue appears expensive, also on the basis of asset valuation (estimated valuation of generating capacity) in FY13. It is only on the basis of FY17 estimates, that the issue looks attractive.
* However, we believe the aggression and track record of the promoter group in shareholder wealth creation in all its businesses including telecommunications, power distribution, financial services and entertainment is likely to have a positive rub-off effect on this IPO as well. We therefore recommend investors to subscribe to the IPO from a long-term point of view.


See also...

Reliance Power IPO sets world record $200 bn

Reliance Power IPO bid details

Reliance Power IPO Subscription status update

Rel Power IPO subscribed 73x; gets bids of Rs 7.5 lk cr

Rel Power IPO subscribed 23x; gets bids of Rs 2.34 lk cr

Electrifying response to Rel Power IPO, subscribed 14x

Rel Power IPO subscribed 10.5x; receives bids of $ 27.5 bn

Reliance Power IPO bidding starts tomorrow (15th Jan)

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